Methodology
The full multiplier stack behind Will I Sell IT?. Every weight, threshold, and category benchmark. Honest about what's data-driven and what's a heuristic. Calibrated against 2026 indie-business sale comps.
version: v0.5 · last revised: 2026-05 · sources: Acquire.com sold-listings · Empire Flippers Q1 2026 report · Microns sale archive · IndieHackers exit threads
1. The core formula
Two paths, same shape: a base value derived from your inputs, then multiplied (or added to) by a stack of factor weights. Output is a low / mid / high range.
Revenue path
low = MRR × asset_low × score
mid = (low + high) / 2
high = MRR × asset_high × score
score = trend × churn × concentration × handover × audience × stage × urgency × industry × traffic_diversity
Pre-revenue path
base = code_quality_value × project_type_multiplier
user_value = tier_count × per_user_$ × engagement_weight
demand = base × demand_factor
total = (base + user_value × growth) × audience × urgency × industry + demand
low = max(500, total × 0.6)
high = max(1000, total × 1.4)
Range halving (× 0.6 / 1.4) calibrated to the 90% confidence interval observed across ~120 indie pre-rev sales 2024–2026.
2. Asset-type multipliers (Revenue path)
How many months of MRR each business type fetches in 2026, before factor adjustments.
| Type | Low | High | 2026 notes |
|---|
| SaaS / web app | 24× | 60× | Standard 2-5× ARR. Premium for <5% churn niche-leaders |
| AI tool / agent | 36× | 96× | Premium 4-8× ARR. Risk: model dependency, API margins |
| Mobile app | 15× | 30× | 1.25-2.5× ARR. App-store transfer friction caps multiple |
| E-commerce store | 12× | 30× | 1-2.5× ARR. Inventory + supplier risk discounted |
| Newsletter | 12× | 30× | $5-30 / engaged sub alternative. Niche premium up to 4× ARR |
| Browser extension | 18× | 36× | 1.5-3× ARR. Manifest V3 compliance non-negotiable |
| Shopify app | 36× | 72× | 3-6× ARR. Sticky to ecosystem, recurring |
| WordPress plugin / theme | 20× | 40× | 1.7-3.3× ARR. Mature market, lower growth premium |
| API / Dev tool | 30× | 60× | 2.5-5× ARR. Sticky devs = high LTV |
| Marketplace / directory | 18× | 36× | 1.5-3× ARR. Two-sided risk discounts |
| Telegram bot | 12× | 24× | 1-2× ARR. Stars revenue counts. BotFather rights required |
| Discord bot | 12× | 24× | Same as Telegram. Patreon revenue typical |
| Slack / WhatsApp bot | 12× | 24× | App-store directory transfer required |
| Course / education | 12× | 24× | 1-2× ARR. Cohort recurring or evergreen pricing |
| Digital templates | 6× | 18× | 0.5-1.5× ARR. Low recurrence, evergreen sales |
| Content site / blog | 24× | 48× | 2-4× monthly profit. SEO defensibility key |
| Podcast | 12× | 30× | 1-2.5× ARR. Sponsor pipeline transferability matters |
| YouTube / media | 12× | 30× | 1-2.5× ARR. Account transfer is the risk |
| Productized service | 6× | 18× | 0.5-1.5× ARR. Founder dependency = biggest discount |
| Web utility | 12× | 24× | 1-2× ARR. Single-use case = lower stickiness |
| Email tool | 18× | 36× | 1.5-3× ARR. Recurring B2B nature helps |
| SaaS + services hybrid | 18× | 36× | 1.5-3× ARR. Service portion discounted vs pure SaaS |
| Mobile / web game | 18× | 36× | 1.5-3× ARR. Hit-driven; live-ops dependency = risk |
| Other | 12× | 24× | Conservative default for un-classified models |
Sources: Acquire.com 2025 trends report; Empire Flippers transaction data Q1 2026; FE International 2026 multiples summary
3. Factor weights (Revenue path)
Revenue trend (last 90 days)
| Trend | Mult | Reasoning |
|---|
| Growing | ×1.25 | Buyers pay forward for trajectory; signals PMF |
| Stable | ×1.00 | Baseline; predictable cash-flow |
| Declining | ×0.70 | Compounds in DD: every metric reviewed against decline |
| Too new | ×0.85 | <3 mo of data = buyer can't model; conservative discount |
Monthly churn
| Churn | Mult | Reasoning |
|---|
| < 5% | ×1.15 | Premium retention. <3% in B2B = top-decile |
| 5 – 10% | ×1.00 | Industry baseline indie B2C / mid-tier B2B |
| > 10% | ×0.70 | Retention risk hardly recoverable; cap at acquisition |
| Don't know | ×0.90 | Penalty for missing metric. Buyers calculate & discount |
Customer concentration (top customer % of MRR)
| Concentration | Mult | Reasoning |
|---|
| < 10% | ×1.05 | Diversified; low single-customer-loss risk |
| 10 – 25% | ×1.00 | Manageable; defensible with clear contracts |
| > 25% | ×0.75 | #1 silent killer in indie M&A diligence |
| Many small (B2C) | ×1.10 | No single-customer risk = bonus. Common in freemium |
Handover readiness
| Status | Mult | Reasoning |
|---|
| Documented | ×1.10 | Buyer can run it <30 days. Reduces transition risk |
| Partial | ×1.00 | Industry baseline. Some onboarding required |
| Founder-dependent | ×0.70 | Often deal-killing in DD. Common reason for failed exits |
Target audience
| Audience | Mult | Reasoning |
|---|
| Enterprise | ×1.25 | Big-logo trust; long contracts; high LTV |
| SMB | ×1.10 | Broadest acquirer demand pool 2026 |
| Solo / Freelancer | ×1.03 | Most liquid indie segment; high churn balanced by volume |
| B2C | ×1.00 | Baseline; volume but more lowballs |
| Niche / Other | ×0.95 | Smaller buyer pool; harder match |
Business stage
| Stage | Mult | Reasoning |
|---|
| Early ramp (<12 mo) | ×0.80 | Insufficient operating history for buyer modeling |
| Established (1-3 yr) | ×1.00 | Baseline; track record exists |
| Growth phase | ×1.20 | Buyers pay forward for momentum |
| Mature (5+ yr, plateau) | ×1.05 | Stable but no growth premium; defensibility valued |
Urgency / timeline
| Urgency | Mult | Reasoning |
|---|
| No rush | ×1.05 | Posture matters: "wait for the right offer" |
| Prefer quick (~60 d) | ×1.00 | Standard timeline; auctions handle this well |
| Must sell ASAP | ×0.80 | Desperation visible to buyers; routinely discounted |
Traffic-source diversity
| Channels | Mult | Reasoning |
|---|
| 0 – 1 channel | ×0.85 | Single point of failure for new owner |
| 2 channels | ×1.00 | Baseline; partial diversification |
| 3+ channels | ×1.15 | Resilient acquisition; lower risk premium |
Industry weight
| Industry | Mult |
|---|
| AI / ML | ×1.10 |
| FinTech | ×1.08 |
| DevTools / Infra · Security / Cybersec | ×1.07 |
| HealthTech | ×1.06 |
| Data / Analytics | ×1.05 |
| Creator Economy | ×1.04 |
| MarTech · Legal / Compliance | ×1.03 |
| SaaS / Productivity · EdTech | ×1.02 |
| HR · PropTech · Climate · Other | ×1.00 |
| FoodTech · Gaming · DTC | ×0.97 |
| Social / Community · Travel | ×0.95 |
Industry weights tuned to 2026 acquirer signals from public M&A coverage (TechCrunch, SaaS Capital, Microns blog) and reviewed quarterly
4. Pre-revenue weights
Code quality base value
| Quality | Base $ | Reasoning |
|---|
| Production-ready | $5,000 | Tested, documented, CI/CD. Buyer can ship without rewrite |
| Solid | $3,000 | Works well; some docs; minor refactor likely |
| Basic | $1,500 | Functional; minimal docs; significant cleanup expected |
| Prototype | $500 | Proof of concept; buyer pays for idea + working demo |
Project-type multiplier (applied to code base) + per-user $
| Type | Mult | $ / user |
|---|
| AI tool | ×1.8 | $3.0 |
| API / Dev tool | ×1.7 | $4.0 |
| SaaS · Shopify app | ×1.5 | $2.5 / $3.0 |
| Marketplace · Hybrid | ×1.4 | $1.5 / $2.0 |
| Email tool · Mobile · Game | ×1.3 | $1.5 – $2.0 |
| Browser ext · WP plugin | ×1.2 | $2.0 / $1.5 |
| Bots · Course | ×1.1 | $1.5 / $2.0 |
| Utility · B2C / Other | ×1.0 | $1.2 – $1.5 |
| Newsletter · Podcast / YT | ×0.9 | $1.0 / $0.8 |
| Content site | ×0.8 | $1.0 |
| Templates · Service · eCom | ×0.7 – 1.0 | $0.8 – $1.2 |
User-base tier (midpoint count for math)
| Tier | Range | Midpoint used |
|---|
| None yet | 0 users | 0 |
| Handful | 1 – 100 | 50 |
| Early traction | 100 – 1,000 | 500 |
| Growing audience | 1,000 – 10,000 | 5,000 |
| Substantial | 10,000 + | 20,000 |
Engagement weight (multiplied with user count)
| Engagement | Weight | Reasoning |
|---|
| Some paying / paid beta | ×3.0 | Strongest pre-rev signal; rare and premium |
| Mostly active (DAU/MAU) | ×1.0 | Baseline; engaged users count fully |
| Mostly signups (inactive) | ×0.5 | Diluted by attrition; buyers haircut |
| Waitlist / interest only | ×0.25 | Intent ≠ validation; weakest signal |
User growth (MoM)
| Growth | Mult |
|---|
| > 30% MoM | ×1.6 |
| 15 – 30% MoM | ×1.3 |
| 5 – 15% MoM | ×1.1 |
| Flat / declining | ×1.0 |
Demand bonus (added to base)
| Demand signal | Bonus |
|---|
| Active waitlist (100+) or paid beta | +50% of base |
| Some interest (social / scattered signups) | +20% of base |
| Not yet validated externally | +0% |
5. Verdict thresholds
Score is the product of all factor multipliers. Range typically 0.20 – 2.20. Verdict tier mapped from score:
| Score range | Tier | Verdict |
|---|
| ≥ 1.45 | go | Premium — multiple buyers will compete |
| 1.10 – 1.45 | go | Will sell — clean process likely |
| 0.85 – 1.10 | caution | Will sell — but expect lowballs |
| 0.55 – 0.85 | caution | Listing will be slow — fix the issues first |
| < 0.55 | stop | Not yet sellable — major rework needed |
For pre-revenue, verdict mapped from the high estimate instead of score:
| High estimate | Tier | Verdict |
|---|
| < $3,000 | stop | Not yet sellable — keep building |
| $3K – $10K | caution | Will sell — small ticket, focused buyers |
| ≥ $10K | go | Strong pre-revenue case — buyers will compete |
6. Platform-placement logic
"Where to list" returns top 3 ranked for your case (not all 5+ — too much noise). Ranking adjusts based on score and price tier:
- Pre-rev ExitBid #1 (one of few accepting pre-rev); Microns / Flippa as #2/3
- score < 0.85 OR low < $25K ExitBid #1 (auction format works for weak/micro deals); direct outreach + Flippa as #2/3
- score > 1.25 AND high > $150K Empire Flippers / Acquire #1; ExitBid drops to #4
- otherwise (mid-tier) Acquire #1; ExitBid #2; Empire Flippers #3
The tool prioritizes actually fitting recommendations over promoting any specific platform. ExitBid is one of several. Where it doesn't fit your case, it's not in the top 3.
7. What this tool is NOT
- Not a precise valuation. Real prices vary ±20-30% from any tool. Acquirers always have the last word.
- Not a substitute for a broker on >$250K asking. Above that, hire someone with relationships in your category.
- Not financial advice. Estimates only; not guarantees of sale price.
- Not affiliated with any specific marketplace. ExitBid recommendations follow the same logic as everyone else.
8. Limitations & calibration roadmap
- Pre-rev model under-weights AI tools with proprietary fine-tunes (we'll add a "moat" question Q3 2026)
- Geo focus not yet captured (US-focused vs global has ~20% delta we don't model)
- Customer NPS / community engagement signals missing
- Platform fees / commissions not factored into "what you'd net" (only gross sale price)
- Industry weights need quarterly review against actual closed-deal data
9. Source data & reproducibility
- Acquire.com sold-listings — public price + asset metadata, ~480 deals 2024-2026
- Empire Flippers transaction reports — quarterly aggregate (multiples by category)
- Microns sale archive — small SaaS focus, ~120 deals
- IndieHackers exit threads — qualitative signals (concentration, founder dependency)
- Pink/exitbid calculator — cross-validated for asset-type multipliers
If you spot a multiplier that disagrees with your own data, email us. We adjust quarterly.
Last revised 2026-05 · v0.5 · willisellit.com is an independent project not affiliated with any specific marketplace